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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Nov 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 331 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Nov 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 27/1852Z from Region 3500 (S20E08). There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Nov, 29 Nov, 30 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 507 km/s at 26/2128Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 26/2339Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 27/1834Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 153 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (28 Nov), quiet to active levels on day two (29 Nov) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (30 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Nov to 30 Nov
Class M35%35%35%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Nov 187
  Predicted   28 Nov-30 Nov 185/182/182
  90 Day Mean        27 Nov 149

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Nov   NA/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Nov  006/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Nov-30 Nov  005/006-008/010-024/030

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Nov to 30 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%20%35%
Minor storm05%05%25%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm20%20%45%

All times in UTC

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