Viewing archive of Tuesday, 19 December 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Dec 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 353 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Dec 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
19/0304Z from Region 3528 (N08E01). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Dec, 21 Dec,
22 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 835 km/s at 19/0311Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 18/2126Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 18/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 208 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 Dec), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (21 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (22 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Dec to 22 Dec
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Dec 179 Predicted 20 Dec-22 Dec 180/178/178 90 Day Mean 19 Dec 149
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Dec 016/020 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Dec 012/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Dec-22 Dec 010/012-007/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Dec to 22 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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