Viewing archive of Thursday, 11 January 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jan 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 11 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
10/2328Z from Region 3538 (N20W81). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Jan, 13 Jan,
14 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 550 km/s at 11/0502Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
11/0154Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
11/0522Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 101 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and three (12 Jan, 14 Jan) and quiet
to unsettled levels on day two (13 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jan to 14 Jan
| Class M | 45% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jan 193 Predicted 12 Jan-14 Jan 192/190/186 90 Day Mean 11 Jan 149
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jan 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan 006/005-006/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan to 14 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 25% | 25% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, UtsjokiKirkenes
Arkhangelsk, Murmansk, Norilsk, Vorkuta
Kiruna, Luleå, Umeå
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| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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