Viewing archive of Sunday, 14 January 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jan 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 14 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
14/1206Z. There are currently 12 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Jan, 16 Jan,
17 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 500 km/s at 14/0328Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
14/0735Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
14/0736Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 194 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (15 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (16 Jan, 17 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jan 188 Predicted 15 Jan-17 Jan 190/190/185 90 Day Mean 14 Jan 151
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan 003/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jan 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan 006/005-008/008-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 25% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/10/31 | X2.0 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/05 | M2.6 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| September 2024 | 141.4 -74.1 |
| November 2024 | 215.8 +74.4 |
| Last 30 days | 161.1 +7.2 |