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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Apr 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 115 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Apr 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
24/0239Z from Region 3638 (S17W74). There are currently 16 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(25 Apr, 26 Apr, 27 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 422 km/s at 24/0808Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
23/2114Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
23/2114Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1006 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (25 Apr) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (26 Apr, 27 Apr). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (25 Apr,
26 Apr, 27 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Apr to 27 Apr
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Apr 199 Predicted 25 Apr-27 Apr 195/185/170 90 Day Mean 24 Apr 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Apr 009/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Apr 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Apr-27 Apr 016/020-015/018-011/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Apr to 27 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 55% | 55% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/13 | M1.7 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 166 -0.4 |
| Last 30 days | 164 +16.8 |