Viewing archive of Friday, 17 May 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 May 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 138 Issued at 2200Z on 17 May 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M7.2 event that was in
progress as of this report from Region 3685 (S13E50, Ds0/beta-gamma).
There are currently 12 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (18 May, 19 May, 20 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 497 km/s at 17/1849Z. Total IMF
reached 17 nT at 17/1404Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-15 nT at 17/1651Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 7 pfu at 17/0250Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 205 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (18 May) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (19 May, 20 May). Protons greater
than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (18
May).
III. Event Probabilities 18 May to 20 May
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 May 204 Predicted 18 May-20 May 205/205/205 90 Day Mean 17 May 167
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 May 019/028 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 May 019/031 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 May-20 May 015/018-012/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 May to 20 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 50% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/20 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
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| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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| Last 30 days | 155.2 +4.4 |