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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jul 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 183 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jul 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
01/1102Z from Region 3730 (S17W47). There are currently 13 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Jul, 03 Jul,
04 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 618 km/s at 30/2246Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
30/2350Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
30/2152Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 290 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (02 Jul, 04 Jul)
and quiet to minor storm levels on day two (03 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jul to 04 Jul
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jul 171 Predicted 02 Jul-04 Jul 180/175/170 90 Day Mean 01 Jul 179
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jun 010/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jul 008/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jul-04 Jul 010/012-014/018-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jul to 04 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 30% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 65% | 30% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Whitehorse, YT, Yellowknife, NTAnchorage, AK, Fairbanks, AK, Juneau, AK, Utqiagvik, AK
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