SpaceWeatherLive .com
Real-time auroral and solar activity

Viewing archive of Monday, 9 December 2024

Solar activity report

Previous rotation Previous day Calendar
Next day Next rotation
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Dec 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 344 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Dec 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 09/1612Z from Region 3912 (S06W75). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (10 Dec) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day two (11 Dec) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (12 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 583 km/s at 09/0732Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 09/1058Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 08/2317Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (10 Dec, 11 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (12 Dec). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (10 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Dec to 12 Dec
Class M60%50%50%
Class X10%10%05%
Proton10%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Dec 172
  Predicted   10 Dec-12 Dec 175/175/180
  90 Day Mean        09 Dec 201
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Dec  004/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Dec  011/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec  010/012-010/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Dec to 12 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm20%20%20%

All times in UTC

Previous rotation Previous day Calendar
Next day Next rotation

<< Go to daily overview page

Back to top

G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 5
Threshold reached: 04:05 UTC

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Gillam, MB, Yellowknife, NT

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Iqaluit, NU, Saskatoon, SK
Nuuk
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (695.7 km/sec.)
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-59nT)

Latest news

Latest forum messages

Unspecified geomagnetic activity 2218Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1660AR4048 114New satellites - Proba-3, PUNCH, SWFO-L1, GOES-U/19 36Filaments and prominences 750
More topics

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

Donate SpaceWeatherLive Pro
Support SpaceWeatherLive with our merchandise
Check out our merchandise

Latest alerts

04:15 UTC - Geomagnetic activity

Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) Threshold Reached: 04:05 UTC

alert

03:15 UTC - Geomagnetic activity

Moderate G2 geomagnetic storm (Kp6) Threshold Reached: 02:59 UTC

alert

01:00 UTC - Geomagnetic activity

Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) Threshold Reached: 00:51 UTC

alert

Friday, 4 April 2025
23:30 UTC - Geomagnetic activity

Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) Threshold Reached: 23:17 UTC

alert

21:03 UTC - Hemispheric Power Index

The OVATION model predicts the Hemispheric Power Index to reach 75GW at 21:49 UTC

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare2025/03/28X1.1
Last M-flare2025/04/01M2.5
Last geomagnetic storm2025/04/04Kp5+ (G1)
Spotless days
Last spotless day2022/06/08
Monthly mean Sunspot Number
March 2025134.2 -20.4
April 2025148 +13.8
Last 30 days130.9 -15.2

This day in history*

Solar flares
12001X1.21
22001M7.3
32001M4.52
42013M3.28
52004M2.47
DstG
11993-165G3
21968-112G3
31978-109G1
41984-108G2
51989-101G2
*since 1994

Social networks