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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Nov 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.comJoint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2024
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
12/0758Z from Region 3884 (S07W56). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Nov, 14
Nov, 15 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 417 km/s at 12/0128Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
12/0408Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
12/1425Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 505 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (13 Nov, 14
Nov, 15 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days
one, two, and three (13 Nov, 14 Nov, 15 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Nov to 15 Nov
Class M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Nov 172
Predicted 13 Nov-15 Nov 172/170/170
90 Day Mean 12 Nov 216
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov 007/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov 011/015-013/012-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov to 15 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes |
Active | 35% | 35% | 30% |
Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
B. High Latitudes |
Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 30% |
Major-severe storm | 50% | 50% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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