Viewing archive of Friday, 3 January 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Jan 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 3 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
03/1139Z from Region 3947 (N11E57). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (04 Jan,
05 Jan) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a
slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (06 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 573 km/s at 03/0139Z. Total IMF reached 16
nT at 03/0959Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -1 nT at
03/2030Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 133 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (04 Jan, 05
Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (06 Jan). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (04 Jan,
05 Jan, 06 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jan to 06 Jan
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 50% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jan 200 Predicted 04 Jan-06 Jan 200/190/185 90 Day Mean 03 Jan 203
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan 014/023 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jan 010/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan 014/018-015/018-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan to 06 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 60% | 50% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Saturday, 4 January 2025
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/01/04 | X1.85 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/01/06 | M4.9 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/01/04 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| December 2024 | 154.5 +2 |
| January 2025 | 175.2 +20.7 |
| Last 30 days | 150.7 +26.1 |