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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Mar 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 81 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Mar 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 13 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Mar, 24 Mar,
25 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 574 km/s at 21/2108Z. Total IMF
reached 30 nT at 21/2209Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-17 nT at 22/0011Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 156 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to severe storm levels on day one (23 Mar), quiet to
minor storm levels on day two (24 Mar) and unsettled to major storm
levels on day three (25 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Mar to 25 Mar
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Mar 178 Predicted 23 Mar-25 Mar 175/170/175 90 Day Mean 22 Mar 188
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Mar 016/028 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Mar 024/035 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar 039/065-015/020-022/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Mar to 25 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 30% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 15% | 25% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 85% | 70% | 75% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Sodankylä, UtsjokiKirkenes, Tromsø
Murmansk
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/03/28 | X1.1 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/03/28 | M1.7 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/03/27 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| February 2025 | 154.6 +17.6 |
| March 2025 | 128.3 -26.4 |
| Last 30 days | 128.3 -23.7 |