M5.6 solar flare, dynamic sunspot region 2403

Monday, 24 August 2015 17:19 UTC

Sunspot region 2403

Sunspot region 2403 is still in a phase of steady growth but as we reported yesterday, there is not a whole lot of magnetic mixing going on this group. We do count four delta sunspots in the trailing portion of this sunspot region but they are all small and not too impressive. Two structures which are potential delta areas in the leading portion of this group are indicated by circles but there is no solid penumbral connection to really call it a delta class.

Image: Sunspot region 2403 as seen by SDO in visible light. Plus and minus signs indicate sunspot polarities.

Another low-level M-class event (R1) is likely in the coming 24 hours but the lack of any solid, larger delta structures make R2 or R3+ (X-class) events very unlikely at this point.

M-class flare probability for the coming 24 hours: 55% chance
X-class flare probability for the coming 24 hours: 5% chance