Shock passage possible: NOAA G2 watch

Sunday, 3 January 2016 00:52 UTC

In plain English: the core of this coronal mass ejection will miss Earth but this coronal mass ejection was pretty fast at 1657 km/s so it pushes a large shock wave in front of it as the coronal mass ejection plows trough interplanetary space which is filled with ambient solar wind. Think of a snow shovel plowing through the snow and bunching up snow in front of it as it advances. A shock wave could graze Earth this afternoon and cause a brief disturbance.

We must agree here with the NOAA SWPC that a shock passage shouldn't be excluded and a brief enhancement of the solar wind environment around Earth is not totally out of the question. It should however not be an event like during new year that would linger for days. The ACE EPAM protons are elevated which could be due to the effects of the Parker spiral but if it continues to rise in the hours ahead it might indeed signal the approach of an interplanetary shock.

An interesting event well worth following today. Do follow the data live on our website today to see if the shock arrives at Earth.