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Rapporto attività solare
Ogni brillamento solare menzionato nel rapporto ha un fattore di scala, applicato dal Centro di Predizione Meteorologica Spaziale (SWPC). A causa del fattore di scala del SWPC, i brillamenti solari sono segnalati come ridotti del 42%, rispetto ai dati di qualità scientifica. Il fattore di scala è stato rimosso dai nostri dati archiviati sui brillamenti solari, per riflettere le unità fisiche reali.
Rapporto dell'Attività Geofisica Solare 1998 Aug 27 2200 UTC
Preparati dal SWPC della NOAA© ed elaborati da SpaceWeatherLive.comRapporto Congiunto USAF/NOAA dell'Attività Solare e Geofisica
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SDF Numero 239 Emesso alle 2200Z il AUG 27 1998
IA. Analisi delle Regioni Solari Attive e Attività dalle 2100Z-26 alle 2100Z-27
SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. THE ONLY ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN A C-CLASS X-RAY BURSTS AND SUBFLARES FROM REGIONS 8307
(N31W28) AND 8319 (N21W03). REGION 8307 CONTINUES ITS SLOW DECAY
AND SIMPLIFICATION. FILAMENT ACTIVITY WITHIN THE REGION HAS
DECREASED. REGION 8319 (N19W03) HAS CONTINUED TO GROW AND DEVELOP.
IT IS STILL SIMPLE AND SMALL IN SPOT AREA, BUT THE PLAGE AREA HAS
GROWN. SUBFLARES AND ARCH FILAMENT SYSTEMS INDICATE THE REGION IS
STILL EMERGING. THE REGION IS CLOSE TO OLDER REGION 8314 (N16E03)
AND IF DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES IN 8319, THE MERGER OF THE REGIONS MAY
PRODUCE ACTIVITY AS A RESULT OF THEIR INTERACTION.
IB. Previsione dell'Attività Solare
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW TO MODERATE. A SPORADIC CLASS M FLARE IS POSSIBLE FROM REGION
8307. THE DEVELOPING COMPLEX OF REGIONS 8314/8319 IS LIKELY TO
PRODUCE FREQUENT SMALL FLARES WITH A LIKELIHOOD OF STRONGER ACTIVITY
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
IIA. Sommario dell'Attività Geofisica dalle 2100Z-26 alle 2100Z-27
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT UNSETTLED TO SEVERE STORM LEVELS.
MID-LATITUDE K-INDICES REACHED 7 AND 8 BETWEEN 27/0300 UT AND
27/1200 UT. THE FORBUSH DECREASE THAT BEGAN LATE ON 25 AUGUST
CONTINUES, WITH NEUTRON MONITOR COUNTING RATES FROM THULE DEPRESSED
BY ABOUT 6 PERCENT TODAY. ACE REAL-TIME SOLAR WIND DATA HAS
PROVIDED CONTINUOUS INFORMATION THROUGH THE PERIOD OF THE
GEOMAGNETIC STORM. FROM 26/0600 UT THROUGH 26/2200 UT, THE
ESTIMATED SOLAR WIND VELOCITY INCREASED STEADILY FROM ABOUT 400 KM/S
TO APPROXIMATELY 900 KM/S, THEN DECLINED JUST AS STEADILY TO ABOUT
600 KM/S BY 27/0900 UT. AT THE SAME TIME, THE DENSITY REMAINED LESS
THAN 10 /CM3 AND THE TEMPERATURE INCREASED FROM 500,000 K UP TO
1,000,000 K AT 26/2100 UT, THEN DOWN TO 20,000 AT 27/1300 UT. THE
RESULT APPEARED TO BE A FAST, HOT, LOW-DENSITY STREAM. THE
INTERPLANETARY BZ FIELD HAS REMAINED NEARLY FLAT AT ABOUT -10 TO -15
NANOTESLA MOST OF TODAY, BUT HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF MOVING TOWARD LESS
NEGATIVE VALUES OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV
PROTON FLUXES HAVE REMAINED ABOVE EVENT THRESHOLDS THROUGHOUT 27
AUGUST. THE GREATER THAN 100 MEV PROTON EVENT WAS DECLARED OVER AT
26/2050 UT. ENERGETIC ELECTRONS FLUXES GREATER THAN 2 MEV, AS
MEASURED BY THE GOES SATELLITE AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT, HAD
DECREASED TO ABOUT 10 PFU EARLY ON 27 AUG AFTER PREVIOUSLY REACHING
NEAR THE SEC ALERT THRESHOLD OF 1000 PFU ON PREVIOUS DAYS. SINCE
27/0900 UT, THE FLUXES HAVE BEEN INCREASING.
IIB. Previsione dell'Attività Geofisica
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT MINOR TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS BUT WITH
DECLINING INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, REACHING ACTIVE TO MINOR
STORM LEVELS BY THE END OF THE DAY TOMORROW. MID-LATITUDE K-INDICES
ARE MOST LIKELY TO REACH VALUES OF 6 OR 7 DURING THE COMING WESTERN
HEMISPHERE NIGHT TIME. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES GREATER THAN 2 MEV
WILL REACH ALERT LEVELS BY THE TIME THIS FORECAST IS EFFECTIVE. THE GREATER
THAN 10 MEV PROTON FLUXES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THEIR SLOW DECLINE
BUT REMAIN ABOVE EVENT THRESHOLDS WELL INTO 27 AUGUST. THE CURRENT
FORBUSH DECREASE IS EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO DECLINE IN INTENSITY.
III. Probabilità dell'Evento dalle AUG del 28 alle AUG del 30
Classe M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
Classe X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
Protone | 25% | 25% | 25% |
PCAF | GREEN
|
IV. Flusso di 10.7 cm di Penticton
Osservato 27 AUG 135
Previsto 28 AUG-30 AUG 135/135/135
Media di 90 Giorni 27 AUG 117
V. Indici Geomagnetici A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 AUG 028/039
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 AUG 084/107
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 AUG-30 AUG 030/030-010/015-010/010
VI. Probabilità dell'Attività Geomagnetica dal 28 AUG al 30 AUG
A. Latitudini Medie |
Attivo | 30% | 40% | 40% |
Tempesta minore | 30% | 10% | 10% |
Tempesta maggiore-grave | 20% | 05% | 05% |
B. Latitudini Alte |
Attivo | 30% | 40% | 40% |
Tempesta minore | 40% | 10% | 10% |
Tempesta maggiore-grave | 15% | 05% | 05% |
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