Previsioni Meteorologiche Spaziali - Discussione

Emesso: 2024 Nov 24 1230 UTC
Preparati dal Dipartimento di Commercio degli Stati Uniti, NOAA, Centro di Previsione Meteorologica Spaziale e elaborati da SpaceWeatherLive.com

Attività solare

Sommario di 24 ore

Solar activity continued at moderate levels with additional M-class flares observed. The first was an M1.1/2n flare at 23/1607 UTC, produced by Region 3901 (S07W15, Cao/beta-gamma). The second event was an M1.1 flare that originated from newly numbered Region 3908 (N14E72, Cao/beta-gamma). Region 3505 (S09E39, Eho/beta-gamma) increased in area extent as its large, leading penumbra exhibited growth. Region 3506 (S16E52, Dki/beta-gamma-delta) underwent evolution as it developed a small delta signature while producing numerous C-class flares. New spots were noted near N26E01, but remain unnumbered at this time as they appear unstable and possibly already in decay. Analysis was performed on a CME that originated from C-class flare activity from AR 3898 near the end of the 23 Nov UTC day. Modeling output indicates this event should be well below and ahead of Earths orbit. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Previsione

Solar activity is expected to be low, with M-class flares (R1/R2-Minor/Moderate) likely, and a slight chance for X-class (R3-Strong) events 24-26 Nov.

Particelle energetiche

Sommario di 24 ore

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux returned to background levels.

Previsione

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux levels are expected to remain at background conditions on 24-26 Nov.

Vento Solare

Sommario di 24 ore

Solar wind parameters reflected weak, negative polarity CH HSS influence. Solar wind speeds gradually increased to peaks near 435 km/s. Total field was primarily 5-8 nT and the Bz component was +/- 6 nT. Phi was predominantly negative.

Previsione

Solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly enhanced on 24 Nov as negative polarity CH HSS influences persist. By 25 Nov, conditions are expected to decrease to near background as the CH moves out of a geoeffective position. Ambient levels are expected to return on 26 Nov.

Geospaziale

Sommario di 24 ore

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Previsione

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with a chance for isolated active periods on 24 Nov due to CH HSS influence. By 25-26 Nov, mostly quiet conditions are expected to return as the CH moves out of a geoeffective position.