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Rapporto attività solare
Ogni brillamento solare menzionato nel rapporto ha un fattore di scala, applicato dal Centro di Predizione Meteorologica Spaziale (SWPC). A causa del fattore di scala del SWPC, i brillamenti solari sono segnalati come ridotti del 42%, rispetto ai dati di qualità scientifica. Il fattore di scala è stato rimosso dai nostri dati archiviati sui brillamenti solari, per riflettere le unità fisiche reali.
Rapporto dell'Attività Geofisica Solare 1998 Dec 29 2200 UTC
Preparati dal SWPC della NOAA© ed elaborati da SpaceWeatherLive.comRapporto Congiunto USAF/NOAA dell'Attività Solare e Geofisica
SDF Numero 363 Emesso alle 2200Z il DEC 29 1998
IA. Analisi delle Regioni Solari Attive e Attività dalle 2100Z-28 alle 2100Z-29
SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8419 (N26W52)
PRODUCED AN M2/1F FLARE AT 28/2338Z AND REGION 8421 (N26E00)
PRODUCED AN M1/1F AT 28/2322Z. REGION 8419 WAS ACTIVE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE REPORTING PERIOD BUT BEGAN TO QUIET DOWN AROUND
29/0300Z. WHITE LIGHT OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE LOSS OF PENUMBRAL AREA
IN THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE REGION. THE MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION
HAS SIMPLIFIED TO A BETA-GAMMA CLASS. IN CONTRAST, REGION 8421 HAS
SHOWN SIGNIFICANT GROWTH OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND BEGAN PRODUCING
FREQUENT C-CLASS SUBFLARES DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS OF THE REPORTING
PERIOD. WHITE LIGHT AND MAGNETIC OBSERVATIONS SHOW A LARGE, COMPACT
SUNSPOT GROUP WITH AT LEAST ONE, AND POSSIBLY TWO DELTA
CONFIGURATIONS. THE MAIN INVERSION LINE RUNS FROM EAST-NORTHEAST TO
WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE REGION.
IB. Previsione dell'Attività Solare
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE, BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A MAJOR EVENT FROM REGION 8421
OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. IN PARTICULAR, CONTINUED FLUX EMERGENCE
AND DEVELOPMENT OF SHEAR ALONG THE NEUTRAL LINE OF THIS REGION COULD
LEAD TO SIGNFICANT FLARE ACTIVITY. REGION 8419 SEEMS TO BE MOSTLY
STABLE, BUT POSES SOME THREAT OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL
M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Sommario dell'Attività Geofisica dalle 2100Z-28 alle 2100Z-29
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO ACTIVE OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS, ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH LATITUDE SITES OBSERVED SHORT
INTERVALS OF STORM LEVEL ACTIVITY. YESTERDAY'S VERY QUIET CONDITIONS
CAME TO AN END AROUND 0730UT AFTER WHICH UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS
PREVAILED. A FEW HIGH-LATITUDE STATIONS SAW SUBSTORM EFFECTS BETWEEN
1000-1400Z, BUT THE DISTURBANCE WASN'T STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
ACTIVE LEVELS AT MID-LATITUDES. THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY (FROM
1500-2100Z) WAS PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED WITH OCCASIONAL ACTIVE
PERIODS AT THE HIGHER LATITUDE SITES. REAL-TIME SOLAR WIND
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED DENSITY, VELOCITY AND
MAGNETIC FIELDS, AND SOMEWHAT LOW TEMPERATURES, SUGGESTING THAT THE
CURRENT ACTIVITY IS BEING CAUSED BY TRANSIENT MATERIAL IN THE SOLAR
WIND.
IIB. Previsione dell'Attività Geofisica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED WITH OCCASIONAL ACTIVE PERIODS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GENERALLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
DOMINATE FOR THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS AS THERE MAY BE SOME
SHORT-LIVED EFFECTS FROM A SMALL, BUT FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL
HOLE.
III. Probabilità dell'Evento dalle DEC del 30 alle JAN del 01
Classe M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
Classe X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
Protone | 15% | 15% | 20% |
PCAF | GREEN
|
IV. Flusso di 10.7 cm di Penticton
Osservato 29 DEC 183
Previsto 30 DEC-01 JAN 180/175/165
Media di 90 Giorni 29 DEC 135
V. Indici Geomagnetici A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 DEC 003/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 DEC 012/011
PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 DEC-01 JAN 012/015-012/010-010/010
VI. Probabilità dell'Attività Geomagnetica dal 30 DEC al 01 JAN
A. Latitudini Medie |
Attivo | 20% | 20% | 15% |
Tempesta minore | 10% | 10% | 05% |
Tempesta maggiore-grave | 05% | 05% | 01% |
B. Latitudini Alte |
Attivo | 45% | 45% | 35% |
Tempesta minore | 25% | 25% | 20% |
Tempesta maggiore-grave | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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