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Rapporto attività solare
Ogni brillamento solare menzionato nel rapporto ha un fattore di scala, applicato dal Centro di Predizione Meteorologica Spaziale (SWPC). A causa del fattore di scala del SWPC, i brillamenti solari sono segnalati come ridotti del 42%, rispetto ai dati di qualità scientifica. Il fattore di scala è stato rimosso dai nostri dati archiviati sui brillamenti solari, per riflettere le unità fisiche reali.
Rapporto dell'Attività Geofisica Solare 2000 Jul 14 2200 UTC
Preparati dal SWPC della NOAA© ed elaborati da SpaceWeatherLive.comRapporto Congiunto USAF/NOAA dell'Attività Solare e Geofisica
SDF Numero 196 Emesso alle 2200Z il JUL 14 2000
IA. Analisi delle Regioni Solari Attive e Attività dalle 2100Z-13 alle 2100Z-14
SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 9077 (N18W09) PRODUCED
AN X5/3B X-RAY EVENT AT 14/1024Z. THIS EVENT HAD AN ASSOCIATED 3000
SFU TENFLARE, A TYPE II SWEEP WITH A SPEED OF APPROXIMATELY 1300
KM/S, AND A STRONG TYPE IV SWEEP. THE SOHO/LASCO IMAGERY INDICATES
A FULL HALO, EARTH DIRECTED CME FROM THIS EVENT. REGION 9077 ALSO
PRODUCED AN M3/1N AT 14/1344Z. CURRENTLY, REGION 9077 IS AN FKC
BETA-GAMMA-DELTA SUNSPOT GROUP AND HAS SHOWN SLIGHT GROWTH SINCE
YESTERDAY. REGION 9085 (N13E47) CONTINUED TO SHOW SOME MINOR GROWTH
DURING THE PERIOD. NEW REGIONS 9087 (S12E71) AND 9088 (N23E25) WERE
NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Previsione dell'Attività Solare
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS. REGION 9077 AND 9085 AND 9081 (N02E29)
HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE M-CLASS EVENTS. ANOTHER MAJOR EVENT IS
POSSIBLE FROM REGION 9077.
IIA. Sommario dell'Attività Geofisica dalle 2100Z-13 alle 2100Z-14
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO MAJOR STORM. ONE ISOLATED PERIOD
OF MAJOR STORMING OCCURRED FROM 14/1500-1800Z. THIS IS BELIEVED TO
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE X1/2B EVENT ON 12 JULY. THE X-CLASS EVENT
DESCRIBED IN PART 1A. PRODUCED PROTON EVENTS AT THE GREATER THAN 10
AND 100 MEV WHICH REMAIN IN PROGRESS AT THIS TIME. THE GREATER THAN
100 MEV CROSSED THE EVENT THRESHOLD OF 1 PFU AT 14/1040Z, REACHED A
PEAK FLUX OF 310 PFU AT 14/1310Z, AND HAS BEGUN TO DECLINE. THE
GREATER THAN 10 MEV CROSSED THE 10 PFU EVENT THRESHOLD AT 14/1050Z,
AND HAS NOT YET PEAKED (HIGHEST FLUX OBSERVED SO FAR WAS 8370 PFU AT
14/1850Z). THE PCA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FLARE BEGAN AT ABOUT
14/1041Z, PEAKED AT 28.0 DB, AND REMAINS IN PROGRESS. THIS X5 EVENT
PRODUCED THE SECOND GROUND LEVEL EVENT (GLE) OF THE SOLAR CYCLE
(LAST GLE IN NOVEMBER, 1997). THE THULE, GREENLAND NEUTRON MONITORS
MEASURED THE GLE BEGINNING AT 14/1036Z, PEAKED WITH ABOUT A 36%
INCREASE ABOVE BACKGROUND AT 14/1043Z AND APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED AT
14/1415Z. MULTIPLE SHORT DURATION MAGNETOPAUSE CROSSINGS WERE
OBSERVED ON GOES-8 (W074) FROM 14/1740Z TO APPROXIMATELY 14/1810Z
AND 14/1915Z TO 14/2000Z.
IIB. Previsione dell'Attività Geofisica
DUE TO THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF
AN EARTH-DIRECTED FULL HALO CME FROM THE X5/3B EVENT MENTIONED ABOVE
IN 1A. THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO SEE AN INCREASE DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE FIRST DAY. MAJOR TO SEVERE STORM LEVELS ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER THE STORM ONSET THROUGH THE SECOND DAY OF THE PERIOD.
BY LATE ON THE THIRD DAY OF THE PERIOD ACTIVITY SHOULD START TO
DECREASE TO ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS.
III. Probabilità dell'Evento dalle JUL del 15 alle JUL del 17
Classe M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
Classe X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
Protone | 99% | 99% | 99% |
PCAF | IN PROGRESS
|
IV. Flusso di 10.7 cm di Penticton
Osservato 14 JUL 204
Previsto 15 JUL-17 JUL 200/195/195
Media di 90 Giorni 14 JUL 184
V. Indici Geomagnetici A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 JUL 018/033
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 JUL 025/036
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 JUL-17 JUL 060/075-100/130-050/060
VI. Probabilità dell'Attività Geomagnetica dal 15 JUL al 17 JUL
A. Latitudini Medie |
Attivo | 10% | 10% | 20% |
Tempesta minore | 25% | 20% | 25% |
Tempesta maggiore-grave | 60% | 70% | 50% |
B. Latitudini Alte |
Attivo | 10% | 10% | 15% |
Tempesta minore | 15% | 10% | 20% |
Tempesta maggiore-grave | 70% | 80% | 60% |
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