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Rapporto attività solare
Ogni brillamento solare menzionato nel rapporto ha un fattore di scala, applicato dal Centro di Predizione Meteorologica Spaziale (SWPC). A causa del fattore di scala del SWPC, i brillamenti solari sono segnalati come ridotti del 42%, rispetto ai dati di qualità scientifica. Il fattore di scala è stato rimosso dai nostri dati archiviati sui brillamenti solari, per riflettere le unità fisiche reali.
Rapporto dell'Attività Geofisica Solare 2000 Nov 10 2200 UTC
Preparati dal SWPC della NOAA© ed elaborati da SpaceWeatherLive.comRapporto Congiunto USAF/NOAA dell'Attività Solare e Geofisica
SDF Numero 315 Emesso alle 2200Z il Nov 10 2000
IA. Analisi delle Regioni Solari Attive e Attività dalle 2100Z-09 alle 2100Z-10
Solar activity was low. Today's largest event was a
C6/1f from Region 9225 (S20W48) at 09/2122Z. There appears to be
some gradual flux emergence in this region. The rest of today's
activity consisted of a few low-level C-class events. Two new
regions were assigned today, Region 9229 (N04E70) and Region 9230
(N05W39). Both are simple and stable. There has been a noticeable
decline in activity and in background levels as regions 9218, 9212,
and 9213 rotate around the west limb.
IB. Previsione dell'Attività Solare
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Regions 9218 (N21W83) and 9227 (S13E24) appear to be
the most likely sources for activity at this time.
IIA. Sommario dell'Attività Geofisica dalle 2100Z-09 alle 2100Z-10
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to major storm levels.
The field was initially running at unsettled to active levels, but a
strong interplanetary shock passed the ACE spacecraft at 0604Z and
was followed promptly by a sudden impulse at 0629Z (measuring 67 nT
in Boulder), and a period of minor to major storm level activity
(i.e. K-indices of 5 and 6). The solar wind following the shock did
not exhibit strongly southward fields, and the result was a weaker
disturbance than had been expected, with a decline to active to
unsettled during the last nine hours of the period. This shock most
likely is the result of the CME associated with the M7 flare of 8
November, and the solar wind signatures are consistent with an
interpretation that the Earth received a glancing, rather than a
direct blow from the interplanetary disturbance. Event level proton
fluxes continued today at the greater than 10 MeV and 100 MeV
levels. Flux levels declined throughout the period, with current
levels (as of 10/2100Z) of 192 pfu and 1.3 pfu at 10 MeV and 100 MeV
respectively.
IIB. Previsione dell'Attività Geofisica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active during the next 24 hours, but there may
be with periods of minor to major storm levels, particularly during
local nighttime hours. Active levels are expected to continue
through the second day and partway through the third day, as effects
are expected from a favorably positioned coronal hole. The greater
than 100 MeV proton event should end within a few hours, but the
greater than 10 MeV event is likely to continue into the third day.
III. Probabilità dell'Evento dalle Nov del 11 alle Nov del 13
Classe M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
Classe X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
Protone | 99% | 99% | 70% |
PCAF | in progress
|
IV. Flusso di 10.7 cm di Penticton
Osservato 10 Nov 153
Previsto 11 Nov-13 Nov 150/150/150
Media di 90 Giorni 10 Nov 173
V. Indici Geomagnetici A
Osservato Afr/Ap 09 Nov 010/011
Stimato Afr/Ap 10 Nov 030/040
Previsto Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov 025/035-020/020-015/020
VI. Probabilità dell'Attività Geomagnetica dal 11 Nov al 13 Nov
A. Latitudini Medie |
Attivo | 40% | 40% | 30% |
Tempesta minore | 30% | 30% | 20% |
Tempesta maggiore-grave | 10% | 10% | 10% |
B. Latitudini Alte |
Attivo | 15% | 15% | 25% |
Tempesta minore | 50% | 50% | 40% |
Tempesta maggiore-grave | 20% | 20% | 15% |
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