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Rapporto attività solare
Ogni brillamento solare menzionato nel rapporto ha un fattore di scala, applicato dal Centro di Predizione Meteorologica Spaziale (SWPC). A causa del fattore di scala del SWPC, i brillamenti solari sono segnalati come ridotti del 42%, rispetto ai dati di qualità scientifica. Il fattore di scala è stato rimosso dai nostri dati archiviati sui brillamenti solari, per riflettere le unità fisiche reali.
Rapporto dell'Attività Geofisica Solare 2001 Nov 05 2200 UTCPreparati dal SWPC della NOAA© ed elaborati da SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapporto Congiunto USAF/NOAA dell'Attività Solare e Geofisica
SDF Numero 309 Emesso alle 2200Z il Nov 05 2001IA. Analisi delle Regioni Solari Attive e Attività dalle 2100Z-04 alle 2100Z-05 Solar activity was at moderate levels. Four M-class
events occurred during the period. The largest was an M2/1n flare
from Region 9684 (N07W40) at 05/0915 UTC. This region remains the
most active region on the visible disk and retains a complex
beta-gamma-delta magnetic classification. Region 9687 (S20E20)
continues to become more complex, as several of its penless spots
have acquired penumbra during the period. It also produced an M1/Sf
flare at 05/0250 UTC. New Region 9690 (S18E71) is rotating onto the
disk and is already showing high flare potential, having produced a
C8.9/Sf event at 05/1808 UTC. It is currently being reported as a 6
spot group with an area of approximately 600 millionths. It will
continue to grow in size and spot number as the entire region
rotates into view.
IB. Previsione dell'Attività Solare
Solar activity is expected to remain
at moderate to high. Region 9684 remains capable of producing
another major flare. Regions 9687 and 9690 are also capable of
producing M-class events and have a slight chance of producing
isolated major flare activity.
IIA. Sommario dell'Attività Geofisica dalle 2100Z-04 alle 2100Z-05
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The greater than
100 MeV proton event that started on 04 November continued through
out the period and flux levels continued to climb, closing out the
day at 102 pfu. The greater than 10 MeV proton event also continued
to escalate flux levels, closing the period at 17,000 pfu. Both
proton events originated from the X1/3b flare from Region 9684, that
occurred on 04/1620 UTC. Subsequent flares may have contributed to
the continued proton flux increase. A polar cap absorption event
remains in progress.
IIB. Previsione dell'Attività Geofisica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be active to major storm levels on the first day of the
forecast period. A coronal mass ejection (CME) from the X1 event on
04 November is expected to impact the geomagnetic field early on 06
November. Major storming is expected with isolated severe storming
possible at higher latitudes. Conditions are expected to decrease to
unsettled to minor storming on the second day and quiet to active on
the third. However additional CME's may have been produced by
several long duration flares that occurred after the X1 event. It is
nearly impossible to detect these events as the LASCO imagery has
been degraded by the current proton storm. If there are subsequent
CME's, the geomagnetic storming could continue into the second and
third day of the forecast period.
III. Probabilità dell'Evento dalle Nov del 06 alle Nov del 08
| Classe M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Classe X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Protone | 99% | 99% | 99% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Flusso di 10.7 cm di Penticton
Osservato 05 Nov 235 Previsto 06 Nov-08 Nov 235/235/235 Media di 90 Giorni 05 Nov 207
V. Indici Geomagnetici A
Osservato Afr/Ap 04 Nov 004/007 Stimato Afr/Ap 05 Nov 012/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov 060/075-030/030-015/012
VI. Probabilità dell'Attività Geomagnetica dal 06 Nov al 08 Nov
| A. Latitudini Medie | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Attivo | 30% | 50% | 35% |
| Tempesta minore | 40% | 25% | 15% |
| Tempesta maggiore-grave | 30% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudini Alte | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Attivo | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Tempesta minore | 30% | 35% | 15% |
| Tempesta maggiore-grave | 50% | 35% | 15% |
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