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Rapporto attività solare
Ogni brillamento solare menzionato nel rapporto ha un fattore di scala, applicato dal Centro di Predizione Meteorologica Spaziale (SWPC). A causa del fattore di scala del SWPC, i brillamenti solari sono segnalati come ridotti del 42%, rispetto ai dati di qualità scientifica. Il fattore di scala è stato rimosso dai nostri dati archiviati sui brillamenti solari, per riflettere le unità fisiche reali.
Rapporto dell'Attività Geofisica Solare 2002 May 22 2200 UTC
Preparati dal SWPC della NOAA© ed elaborati da SpaceWeatherLive.comRapporto Congiunto USAF/NOAA dell'Attività Solare e Geofisica
SDF Numero 142 Emesso alle 2200Z il May 22 2002
IA. Analisi delle Regioni Solari Attive e Attività dalle 2100Z-21 alle 2100Z-22
Solar activity was moderate during the past 24 hours.
An M1/2f event was produced by Region 9960 (N14E19) at 2139 UTC. The
flare was associated with a CME from the northeast limb. This event
was followed by a long duration C9/1f flare from Region 9948
(S21W84) which began at 21/2314 UTC, reached maximum at 22/0030 UTC,
and ended at 22/0128 UTC. This event was associated with a CME from
the southwest limb. Subsequent to this was another long-duration
event, a C5/Sf (maximum time at 0354) from the eruption of a long,
north-south filament just east of 9948 (near S22W53). This flare
showed classic parallel ribbons in H-alpha and was associated with a
very fast, spectacular looking full-halo CME. The plane-of-sky
velocity was estimated to be about 1500 km/s. The appearance of the
CME in the coronagraph data indicates a southwesterly direction of
the leading edge. Region 9957 (N10W04) continues to dominate the
disk in terms of area and magnetic field strengths but is decaying
and has been quiet. Region 9961 (S22E34) retains its complexity from
yesterday and is growing slowly, but was also quiet. Two new sunspot
groups were assigned today: Region 9964 (S15E08) and Region 9965
(S10E62).
IB. Previsione dell'Attività Solare
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate during the next three days. The most likely sources for
M-class events are 9957, 9960 (N14E19), and 9961. There continues to
be a slight chance for a major flare or a proton producing flare.
IIA. Sommario dell'Attività Geofisica dalle 2100Z-21 alle 2100Z-22
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. A weak
shock passed the ACE spacecraft at about 21/2100 UTC and produced a
sudden impulse at 21/2205 UTC which measured 27 nT on the Boulder
magnetometer. The SI was followed by an isolated active period but
conditions quickly dropped back to quiet to unsettled levels after
22/0000 UTC. An enhancement of greater than 10 MeV protons began
around 0800 UTC. Flux levels rose slowly and finally crossed event
threshold at 1755 UTC. The event remains in progress with current
levels at about 46 PFU. It is likely that these particles were
accelerated by the fast shock observed today on the southwest limb
at 0350 UTC.
IIB. Previsione dell'Attività Geofisica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with a chance for some active
periods during the next 24 hours. The fast CME from the southwest
limb associated with the erupting filament is expected to overtake
the CME from the C9 flare, and the combined transient flow is
expected to impact Earth sometime early on the 24th. Due to the
apparent direction of the event, a direct hit is not expected, but
it is likely that the eastern flank of the disturbance will impact
the Earth. Activity levels are expected to be mostly active, but
there is a chance for some isolated storm level activity. Conditions
should subside to mostly unsettled with a few active periods by the
third day. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end
sometime in the next 24 hours.
III. Probabilità dell'Evento dalle May del 23 alle May del 25
Classe M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
Classe X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
Protone | 99% | 10% | 10% |
PCAF | in progress
|
IV. Flusso di 10.7 cm di Penticton
Osservato 22 May 181
Previsto 23 May-25 May 180/175/170
Media di 90 Giorni 22 May 184
V. Indici Geomagnetici A
Osservato Afr/Ap 21 May 012/014
Stimato Afr/Ap 22 May 010/015
Previsto Afr/Ap 23 May-25 May 012/015-025/025-012/010
VI. Probabilità dell'Attività Geomagnetica dal 23 May al 25 May
A. Latitudini Medie |
Attivo | 35% | 45% | 35% |
Tempesta minore | 15% | 25% | 20% |
Tempesta maggiore-grave | 10% | 25% | 10% |
B. Latitudini Alte |
Attivo | 40% | 15% | 25% |
Tempesta minore | 20% | 25% | 30% |
Tempesta maggiore-grave | 15% | 40% | 20% |
Tutti gli orari in UTC
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