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Rapporto attività solare
Ogni brillamento solare menzionato nel rapporto ha un fattore di scala, applicato dal Centro di Predizione Meteorologica Spaziale (SWPC). A causa del fattore di scala del SWPC, i brillamenti solari sono segnalati come ridotti del 42%, rispetto ai dati di qualità scientifica. Il fattore di scala è stato rimosso dai nostri dati archiviati sui brillamenti solari, per riflettere le unità fisiche reali.
Rapporto dell'Attività Geofisica Solare 2003 Jun 19 2200 UTC
Preparati dal SWPC della NOAA© ed elaborati da SpaceWeatherLive.comRapporto Congiunto USAF/NOAA dell'Attività Solare e Geofisica
SDF Numero 170 Emesso alle 2200Z il Jun 19 2003
IA. Analisi delle Regioni Solari Attive e Attività dalle 2100Z-18 alle 2100Z-19
Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Flare
activity was limited to several B-class flares. Region 386 (S07E30)
lost penumbral coverage over the period although it does retain a
delta magnetic structure in the dominant lead spot. Region 387
(N18E49) grew in both penumbral coverage and magnetic complexity
since yesterday, a gamma structure is now evident in the trailing
portion of the spot group. Newly numbered Region 388 (S03E08)
produced a minor B-class flare early in the period.
IB. Previsione dell'Attività Solare
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels. Region 386 remains capable of producing an
isolated major flare.
IIA. Sommario dell'Attività Geofisica dalle 2100Z-18 alle 2100Z-19
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly active levels today.
Minor storm conditions were observed at both middle and high
latitudes between 19/0000 and 0300Z due to the influence of a
recurrent high speed coronal hole stream. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux exceeded event threshold at 18/2050Z (reached a max of
24 pfu at 19/0450Z), ended at 19/1900Z and after careful review the
event is believed to have been the result of the M6.8 x-ray flare
from June 17. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate
levels today.
IIB. Previsione dell'Attività Geofisica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels through
the interval. Minor storm conditions may exist due to a transient
passage during the first half of day one in response to the M6.8
x-ray flare from June 17.
III. Probabilità dell'Evento dalle Jun del 20 alle Jun del 22
Classe M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
Classe X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
Protone | 25% | 15% | 15% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Flusso di 10.7 cm di Penticton
Osservato 19 Jun 123
Previsto 20 Jun-22 Jun 125/125/125
Media di 90 Giorni 19 Jun 124
V. Indici Geomagnetici A
Osservato Afr/Ap 18 Jun 036/054
Stimato Afr/Ap 19 Jun 023/025
Previsto Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun 020/025-020/025-012/020
VI. Probabilità dell'Attività Geomagnetica dal 20 Jun al 22 Jun
A. Latitudini Medie |
Attivo | 40% | 40% | 25% |
Tempesta minore | 15% | 15% | 10% |
Tempesta maggiore-grave | 10% | 10% | 05% |
B. Latitudini Alte |
Attivo | 50% | 50% | 40% |
Tempesta minore | 20% | 20% | 15% |
Tempesta maggiore-grave | 10% | 10% | 10% |
PLAIN
GOES Protons:
To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. GOES 11 (113W) is now the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will continue as the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 (135W) will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray, and energetic particles. Because of the degraded state of the proton data on GOES-10, its designation as the secondary source for proton data is a short-term solution. More permanent solutions have been identified and are being evaluated. Users will be notified when we define and schedule a permanent fix. Further details can be found at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.
K-Indices:
On 16 June, it was determined that a scaling problem exists with the Boulder magnetometer instrument. While this problem, and its fix are being investigated the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices has been switched to the Boulder USGS (via Domsat) magnetometer, effective 1500 UTC on 16 June.
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