Visualizzazione archivio di mercoledì, 10 novembre AM
Rapporto attività solare
Ogni brillamento solare menzionato nel rapporto ha un fattore di scala, applicato dal Centro di Predizione Meteorologica Spaziale (SWPC). A causa del fattore di scala del SWPC, i brillamenti solari sono segnalati come ridotti del 42%, rispetto ai dati di qualità scientifica. Il fattore di scala è stato rimosso dai nostri dati archiviati sui brillamenti solari, per riflettere le unità fisiche reali.
Rapporto dell'Attività Geofisica Solare 2004 Nov 10 2220 UTC
Preparati dal SWPC della NOAA© ed elaborati da SpaceWeatherLive.comRapporto Congiunto USAF/NOAA dell'Attività Solare e Geofisica
SDF Numero 315 Emesso alle 2200Z il Nov 10 2004
IA. Analisi delle Regioni Solari Attive e Attività dalle 2100Z-09 alle 2100Z-10
Solar activity continued at high levels this period.
The very active Region 696 (N08W62) produced an X2/3b Tenflare with
protons at 10/0213Z. Strong Type II and IV radio sweeps and moderate
centimetric radio bursts also accompanied this flare. LASCO imagery
showed a very fast asymetrical full halo CME with a plane-of-sky
speed estimated at 2000 km/s. Region 696 continues to gradually
decrease in area, but maintains a significant delta configuration.
The rest of the visible disk was quiet and stable.
IB. Previsione dell'Attività Solare
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 696, though in decay, maintains potential
for major flare activity. This region will rotate around the west
limb on 13 November and as a result, solar activity levels are
expected to significantly decline.
IIA. Sommario dell'Attività Geofisica dalle 2100Z-09 alle 2100Z-10
The geomagnetic field ranged from active to severe storm levels.
Yesterday's strong shock at 09/1852Z was followed by a short period
of strong southward Bz to near 40 nT, before rotating northward for
approximately five hours. At 10/0100Z, the solar wind exceeded 800
km/s and Bz rotated southward again, ranging from -15 to -25 nT for
over nine hours. The geomagnetic field response was severe at all
latitudes. The period ended at minor storm levels with solar wind
speed declining to near 600 km/s. A new influx of high energy
protons followed the X2 flare at 10/0213Z. A greater than 10 MeV
peak flux of 424 pfu was observed at 10/1655Z. A greater than 100
Mev proton event also occurred in association with the X2 flare. It
began on 10/0320Z, peaked at 2.1 pfu at 10/0340Z, and ended at
10/1250Z. The greater that 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels.
IIB. Previsione dell'Attività Geofisica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from unsettled to severe storm levels on 11 and 12
November. The two halo CMEs observed on 09 and 10 November are
expected to impact the geomagnetic field on 11 November. Both of
these fast CMEs had a strong westward component; however, their
combined effects may produce major or even severe storm periods. On
12 November, field conditions are expected to return to mostly
unsettled to minor storm levels, with occasional major storm periods
at high latitudes. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 13
November. The greater than 10 MeV proton event currently in progress
is expected to end by 12 November.
III. Probabilità dell'Evento dalle Nov del 11 alle Nov del 13
Classe M | 70% | 65% | 60% |
Classe X | 20% | 15% | 10% |
Protone | 99% | 25% | 15% |
PCAF | in progress
|
IV. Flusso di 10.7 cm di Penticton
Osservato 10 Nov 105
Previsto 11 Nov-13 Nov 100/095/090
Media di 90 Giorni 10 Nov 109
V. Indici Geomagnetici A
Osservato Afr/Ap 09 Nov 047/120
Stimato Afr/Ap 10 Nov 100/200
Previsto Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov 075/125-030/050-020/030
VI. Probabilità dell'Attività Geomagnetica dal 11 Nov al 13 Nov
A. Latitudini Medie |
Attivo | 25% | 40% | 30% |
Tempesta minore | 50% | 25% | 20% |
Tempesta maggiore-grave | 25% | 15% | 10% |
B. Latitudini Alte |
Attivo | 20% | 40% | 40% |
Tempesta minore | 40% | 30% | 20% |
Tempesta maggiore-grave | 40% | 20% | 10% |
Tutti gli orari in UTC
<< Vai alla pagina della panoramica giornaliera