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Rapporto attività solare
Ogni brillamento solare menzionato nel rapporto ha un fattore di scala, applicato dal Centro di Predizione Meteorologica Spaziale (SWPC). A causa del fattore di scala del SWPC, i brillamenti solari sono segnalati come ridotti del 42%, rispetto ai dati di qualità scientifica. Il fattore di scala è stato rimosso dai nostri dati archiviati sui brillamenti solari, per riflettere le unità fisiche reali.
Rapporto dell'Attività Geofisica Solare 2012 Mar 09 2210 UTC
Preparati dal SWPC della NOAA© ed elaborati da SpaceWeatherLive.comRapporto Congiunto USAF/NOAA dell'Attività Solare e Geofisica
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SDF Numero 069 Emesso alle 2200Z il Mar 09 2012
IA. Analisi delle Regioni Solari Attive e Attività dalle 2100Z-08 alle 2100Z-09
Solar activity reached high levels today. Region 1429
(N18W13) produced an M6 flare at 09/0353Z. Associated with this
event was Type II (1285 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps along with a
full halo CME first seen in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 09/0426Z. The
CME had an estimated plane-of-sky speed of 850 km/s in STEREO B COR2
imagery. Separation and slight decay within the intermediate area
was observed in Region 1429, however it still remained a large Ekc
spot group with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. A new
spot group rotated onto the NE limb and was numbered Region 1432
(N18E69). This new region is too close to the limb to accurately
determine the spot and magnetic classification, however it produced
a C9 flare at 09/2025Z.
IB. Previsione dell'Attività Solare
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low to moderate levels with a chance for X-class activity from
Region 1429 for the next three days (10 - 12 March).
IIA. Sommario dell'Attività Geofisica dalle 2100Z-08 alle 2100Z-09
The geomagnetic field was at active to severe storm conditions due to
continued activity from the sheath region associated with the 07
March CME. At approximately 09/0049Z, the Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field started to rotate towards a more
magnetically connected polarity. Bz continued to be negative for
several hours reaching values near -17 nT with an approximate solar
wind speed over 600 km/s. The geomagnetic field responded with
major to severe storm periods during the periods 09/0300 - 1500Z.
Solar wind remained elevated around 600 km/s by the end of the
period. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 07/0510Z
is ongoing. The greater than 100 MeV proton event that began at
07/0405 is ongoing.
IIB. Previsione dell'Attività Geofisica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be under the influence of the current CME through early
on day 1. Unsettled to active conditions, with isolated minor storm
periods, are possible is expected as the CME continues to wane.
Early to mid-day on day 2 (11 March), the CME associated with
todays M-6 flare is expected to become geoeffective. Active to
severe storm periods are expected with this event. Unsettled to
active conditions, with isolated minor storm periods, are possible
on day 3 (12 March) as conditions are expected to slowly dissipate.
III. Probabilità dell'Evento dalle Mar del 10 alle Mar del 12
Classe M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
Classe X | 40% | 40% | 40% |
Protone | 99% | 99% | 60% |
PCAF | red
|
IV. Flusso di 10.7 cm di Penticton
Osservato 09 Mar 146
Previsto 10 Mar-12 Mar 150/150/150
Media di 90 Giorni 09 Mar 125
V. Indici Geomagnetici A
Osservato Afr/Ap 08 Mar 021/028
Stimato Afr/Ap 09 Mar 046/073
Previsto Afr/Ap 10 Mar-12 Mar 015/022-033/070-017/030
VI. Probabilità dell'Attività Geomagnetica dal 10 Mar al 12 Mar
A. Latitudini Medie |
Attivo | 30% | 30% | 30% |
Tempesta minore | 20% | 35% | 20% |
Tempesta maggiore-grave | 05% | 20% | 10% |
B. Latitudini Alte |
Attivo | 35% | 20% | 40% |
Tempesta minore | 25% | 30% | 30% |
Tempesta maggiore-grave | 15% | 50% | 25% |
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