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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2015 Mar 15 1224 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Brillamenti solari

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Protoni solari

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
15 Mar 2015	116	008
16 Mar 2015	115	010
17 Mar 2015	115	010

Bulletin

Over the past 24 hours there were several C-class flares and 1 M-class flare which were produced by NOAA AR (Active Region) 2297, which is currently located at S15W25, and is classified as a Beta-Gamma-Delta region under the Mount Wilson magnetic classification system. The largest flare recorded over the past 24 hours, produced by AR 2297, was an M1.0 flare on 2015-Mar-15 peaking at 09:40UT. ARs 2297 and 2299, have shown little magnetic evolution with a small amount of flux emergence, which may lead to future eruptions. AR 2301, which emerged near disk center on 2015-Mar-14, has shown evidence of a small amount of flux emergence, but has remained small. A partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was reported by CACTus and first seen in LASCO/C2 images at 02:00UT, this CME was related to a C9.1 flare from NOAA AR 2297 peaking at 02:13UT, see below for details. There is a large filament located between S15W90 and S50W05, however this has remained, and appears, stable. The solar wind speed has decreased over the past 24 hours from 350 km/s to 300 km/s. The total magnetic field has remained roughly constant around 6 nT, and the Bz component has changed from positive (around +5 nT) to negative (around -3 nT) over the past 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions ranged between Kp index 1-3 (NOAA) and local K index 1-3 (Dourbes) over the past 24 hours. A small shock front was observed by the ACE satellite at 21:00 UT on 2015-Mar-14. A partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was reported by CACTus and first seen in LASCO/C2 images at 02:00UT, produced by AR 2297. This CME was related to a C9.1 flare from NOAA 2297 peaking at 02:13UT. The CME had a plane of the sky speed of 712 km/s, and a width of 160 degrees. The bulk of the CME is directed away from Earth to the West, but a glancing blow cannot be ruled out based on current imagery. The CME is estimated to arrive at Earth on 16 March at 18:00UT (+/- 12 hours).

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 053, based on 06 stations.

Solar indices for 14 Mar 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	116
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	043 - Based on 15 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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