Solar activity increased to high levels. Region 1515 (S17W23) produced an M5/2b flare at 04/0955Z along with occasional low-level M-class flares including an M2/Sn at 04/0437Z associated with a 150 sfu Tenflare. Spot and penumbral development was evident in the leading half of the region and it retained its beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Coronal mass ejections (CME) were associated with the flare activity in Region 1515, but the bulk of the ejecta was directed southward, out of the ecliptic plane. Region 1513 (N17W36) produced an M1/2n flare at 04/1639Z associated with Types II (estimated shock velocity 807 km/s) and IV radio sweeps and a 200 sfu Tenflare. This event was also associated with a CME that may have had an Earthward component, but further analysis will be required to determine potential geoeffectiveness. Region 1513 showed no significant changes and retained its beta-gamma magnetic configuration. New Regions 1518 (N09E65) and 1519 (S14E76) rotated into view and were numbered late in the period.

Solar activity is expected to be moderate through the period (05 - 07 July) with a chance for an isolated X-class flare from Region 1515.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels with active periods detected at high latitudes. ACE solar wind data indicated Earth remained within a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds were in the 463 to 601 km/s range and IMF Bz was variable in the +6 to -5 nT range. Todays observed Penticton 10.7 cm flux reading (163 sfu) was flare-enhanced. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during the period (05 - 07 July) with a chance for active levels as the CH HSS gradually subsides. Recent CME activity from Region 1515 is not expected to significantly disturb the field.

  Zaobserwowano       04 Jul 163
  Przewidywane   05 Jul-07 Jul  155/160/160
  Średnia z 90 dni        04 Jul 121

  Zaobserwowano Afr/Ap 03 Jul  011/011
  Szacowane     Afr/Ap 04 Jul  010/012
  Przewidywane    Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul  007/008-009/008-007/008