Viewing archive of Monday, 21 October 1996
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Oct 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 21 OCT 1996IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THERE ARE NO SPOTTED
REGIONS CURRENTLY ON THE DISK. REGION 7990 (N15E13) IS QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN
2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS HIGH.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED BECOMING UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE
DUE TO A RECURRENT, CORONAL-HOLE-RELATED DISTURBANCE.
III. Event Probabilities 22 OCT to 24 OCT
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 OCT 070 Predicted 22 OCT-24 OCT 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 21 OCT 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 OCT 014/015 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 OCT 008/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 OCT-24 OCT 010/010-015/022-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 OCT to 24 OCT
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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