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Viewing archive of Thursday, 28 November 1996

Solar activity report

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Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Nov 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 333 Issued at 2200Z on 28 NOV 1996

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 7999 (S05W34) PRODUCED A C1/SF AT 28/1243Z. THIS REGION DECAYED SLIGHTLY IN BOTH SUNSPOT AREA AND NUMBER. ANOTHER LONG DURATION X-RAY ENHANCEMENT OCCURRED BETWEEN 28/1535-1902Z. A C1 MAXIMUM WAS REACHED. CORONAGRAPH DATA AFTER THE EVENT SHOWED A MASSIVE CORONAL MASS EJECTION OFF THE WEST LIMB. THE LONGITUDES BEHIND THE WEST LIMB MUST BE UNDERGOING SIGNIFICANT EVOLUTION.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO BE LOW. REGION 7999 IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING OCCASIONAL C-CLASS AND ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, SOLAR WIND VELOCITIES WERE BELOW 450 KM/S.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THE CME MENTIONED ABOVE IS NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ANY DISTURBANCE. EVEN IF THE FLANK OF THE CME STRUCK THE EARTH, THE EFFECTS WOULD BE MINIMAL.
III. Event Probabilities 29 NOV to 01 DEC
Class M20%20%20%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 NOV  098
  Predicted   29 NOV-01 DEC  096/094/092
  90 Day Mean        28 NOV  072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 27 NOV  008/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 NOV  007/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 NOV-01 DEC  005/005-005/005-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 NOV to 01 DEC
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 5
Threshold reached: 03:37 UTC

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Gillam, MB, Yellowknife, NT

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Edmonton, AB, Iqaluit, NU, Saskatoon, SK
Nuuk
Juneau, AK
Reykjavik

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Thunder Bay, ON, Winnipeg, MB
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (19.33nT), the direction is North (1.42nT).
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-62nT)

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