Viewing archive of Friday, 29 November 1996

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Nov 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 29 NOV 1996

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. REGION 7999 (S04W47) PRODUCED AN M1/1F FLARE AT 29/2044Z. MINOR CENTIMETRIC RADIO BURSTS ACCOMPANIED THE EVENT. DURING THE PERIOD, REGION 7999 EXHIBITED SLOW SUNSPOT DECAY AND SLIGHT PROPER MOTION OF A SOUTHERN TRAILER SPOT.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO BE PREDOMINANTLY LOW WITH AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE POSSIBLE FROM REGION 7999. IT IS NOT LIKELY THE M-CLASS FLARE MENTIONED ABOVE IS THE BEGINNING OF AN INCREASE IN FLARE ACTIVITY FROM REGION 7999 BECAUSE OF GENERAL DECAY IN THE REGION. THE M1 FLARE IS MORE LIKELY A RESULT OF SUNSPOT PROPER MOTION AND REALIGNMENT OF THE OVERLYING FIELDS. THE PROPER MOTION OCCURRED AT THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF THE REGION SO THIS PHENOMENON IS NOT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. SOLAR WIND VELOCITIES DROPPED BELOW 400 KM/S DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS FORECAST TO BE QUIET FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 30 NOV to 02 DEC
Class M30%30%20%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 NOV  091
  Predicted   30 NOV-02 DEC  090/088/085
  90 Day Mean        29 NOV  072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 28 NOV  006/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 NOV  004/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 NOV-02 DEC  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 NOV to 02 DEC
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Gillam, MB, Yellowknife, NT

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