Viewing archive of Sunday, 5 January 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Jan 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 5 Issued at 2200Z on 05 JAN 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY LOW. A LONG DURATION, LOW INTENSITY (A6) X-RAY EVENT WAS OBSERVED BY GOES-9 FROM 1331-1610 UT. THERE WERE NO IMAGE OBSERVATIONS AVAILABLE TO PINPOINT THE SOURCE OF THIS EVENT. REGION 8009 (S03W18) IS A SMALL AND VERY STABLE BXO GROUP.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WITH A POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS. AN INCREASE FROM TODAY'S QUIET LEVELS IS ANTICIPATED BECAUSE OF RECURRENCE EFFECTS.
III. Event Probabilities 06 JAN to 08 JAN
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 JAN 074
  Predicted   06 JAN-08 JAN  074/075/076
  90 Day Mean        05 JAN 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 JAN  004/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 JAN  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 JAN-08 JAN  010/012-010/010-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 JAN to 08 JAN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 5
Threshold reached: 18:59 UTC

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Arkhangelsk, Vorkuta
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is high (22.74nT), the direction is North (17.96nT).
The maximum X-ray flux of the past two hours is:
M1.31

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