Viewing archive of Tuesday, 4 February 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Feb 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 035 Issued at 2200Z on 04 FEB 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW TO LOW. REGION 8015 (N05W50) IS A 'DAO' BETA WITH 21 SPOTS AND REGION 8016 (S12W04) IS A 'BXO' BETA WITH 12 SPOTS. THERE WAS A 'C' CLASS EVENT FROM REGION 8016 AT 1111Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY LOW TO LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS HAVE BEEN AT HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET.
III. Event Probabilities 05 FEB to 07 FEB
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 FEB 081
  Predicted   05 FEB-07 FEB  078/078/075
  90 Day Mean        04 FEB 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 FEB  006/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 FEB  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 FEB-07 FEB  005/008-005/008-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 FEB to 07 FEB
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a high possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Fairbanks, AK

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Gillam, MB, Whitehorse, YT, Yellowknife, NT
Anchorage, AK, Juneau, AK

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Edmonton, AB, Saskatoon, SK

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Calgary, AB

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