Viewing archive of Wednesday, 5 February 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Feb 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 036 Issued at 2200Z on 05 FEB 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8015 (N05W64) IS A 'DAO' BETA WITH SIX SPOTS AND REGION 8016 (S20W18) IS A 'HRX' ALPHA. REGION 8016 APPEARS TO BE A NEW CYCLE REGION (I.E. NEGATIVE LEADER POLE AND A POSITIVE TRAILER). THERE HAVE BEEN NO FLARES.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT ALL LATITUDES AND THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS HAVE BEEN AT HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET.
III. Event Probabilities 06 FEB to 08 FEB
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 FEB 075
  Predicted   06 FEB-08 FEB  078/077/075
  90 Day Mean        05 FEB 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 FEB  004/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 FEB  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 FEB-08 FEB  005/012-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 FEB to 08 FEB
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm01%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 5
Threshold reached: 20:20 UTC

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Reykjavik

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Tórshavn
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Kuopio, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Kirkenes, Tromsø, Trondheim
Arkhangelsk, Murmansk
Kiruna, Luleå, Sundsvall, Umeå
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (516 km/sec.)

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