Viewing archive of Tuesday, 1 April 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Apr 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.comJoint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 091 Issued at 2200Z on 01 APR 1997
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8026 (S25E07), A 13
SPOT 'CAO' GROUP, GENERATED A SINGLE M1/1B FLARE AT 01/1348, WHICH
WAS PRECEEDED BY THREE C-CLASS EVENTS. THE REGION HAD BEEN SURGING
PRIOR TO, BUT HAD STOPPED BEFORE THE ONSET OF THE M1 EVENT. AN
ASSOCIATED HIGH SPEED DARK SURGE ACCOMPANIED THE M1 FLARE. ALL FOUR
FLARES OCCURRED NEAR THE SMALL OPPOSITE POLARITY FIELD EAST OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST PENUMBRA, WHICH SUPPORTS THE MT. WILSON SOLAR
OBSERVATORY'S MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATION OF THIS REGION AS A
BETA-GAMMA-DELTA. NUMEROUS RADIO BURSTS AT VARIOUS FREQUENCIES WERE
OBSERVED BEORE AND AFTER THE FLARE ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION, TWO
FILAMENTS DISSAPPEARED OVERNIGHT FROM REGION 8026, WITH THE LARGER
OF THE TWO (7 DEGREES) HAVING BECOME HIGHLY ACTIVE PRIOR TO
DISAPPEARING.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW, WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS FOR
THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
REPORTING PERIOD, WITH A SINGLE PERIOD OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS RECORDED
AT FREDRICKSBURG DURING THE INTERVAL 01/0300-0600Z, AND THEN QUIET
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS
WERE IN THE MODERATE TO HIGH RANGE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WITH A
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS.
III. Event Probabilities 02 APR to 04 APR
Class M | 20% | 15% | 10% |
Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
PCAF | GREEN
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 APR 076
Predicted 02 APR-04 APR 076/077/078
90 Day Mean 01 APR 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 31 MAR 007/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 APR 012/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 APR-04 APR 010/010-010/010-010/006
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 APR to 04 APR
A. Middle Latitudes |
Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
B. High Latitudes |
Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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