Viewing archive of Friday, 2 May 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 May 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 122 Issued at 2200Z on 02 MAY 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

THE DISK CONTINUED SPOTLESS AND SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE AT A VERY LOW LEVEL FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD BEGAN THE PERIOD AT MINOR STORM LEVELS. AFTER 02/0300Z, THE FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY EXCEEDED 600 KM/S DURING THE PERIOD. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS BECAME HIGH NEAR 02/1630Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE EARLY PORTIONS OF 03 MAY AS THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE SUBSIDES. QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR 04-05 MAY.
III. Event Probabilities 03 MAY to 05 MAY
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 MAY 072
  Predicted   03 MAY-05 MAY  072/072/073
  90 Day Mean        02 MAY 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 MAY  018/020
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 MAY  015/018
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 MAY-05 MAY  012/012-008/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 MAY to 05 MAY
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%10%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%15%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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