Viewing archive of Saturday, 17 May 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 May 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 137 Issued at 2200Z on 17 MAY 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NEW REGIONS 8041 (N04E24) AND 8042 (N25E46) WERE NUMBERED TODAY. THESE REGIONS, ALONG WITH REGION 8038 (N24W82) AND 8040 (N03E41), ARE SMALL, MAGNETICALLY SIMPLE, AND QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY LOW FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT MID LATITUDES, AND QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH A SINGLE PERIOD OF ACTIVE LEVELS AT 17/0600Z AT HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 18 MAY to 20 MAY
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 MAY 073
  Predicted   18 MAY-20 MAY  074/074/074
  90 Day Mean        17 MAY 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 MAY  016/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 MAY  010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 MAY-20 MAY  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 MAY to 20 MAY
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%

All times in UTC

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