Viewing archive of Thursday, 22 May 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 May 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 142 Issued at 2200Z on 22 MAY 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME VERY LOW. ONLY SMALL B-CLASS
ENHANCEMENTS WERE OBSERVED AFTER THE M1 EVENT ON 21 MAY. REGION 8040
(N05W25) STABILIZED AND THE MAGNETIC DELTA THAT WAS FORMING
YESTERDAY HAS FADED. OTHER REGIONS ON THE DISK ARE STABLE OR IN
SLOW DECLINE. LARGE, CURRENTLY QUIESCENT, PROMINENCES WERE VISIBLE
ON THE SOUTHEAST LIMB.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. OCCASIONAL C-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE FROM REGION 8040.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES. ENERGETIC ELECTRONS
AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT AGAIN REACHED HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.
CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS WERE OBSERVED FROM THE WEST LIMB AND ALSO AS
A VERY WEAK HALO FOLLOWING THE M1 EVENT ON 21 MAY. THE WEST LIMB
EVENT APPEARS TO BE RELATED FROM A SLOW EVENT IN REGION 8043
(N27W79) WHILE THE HALO CME IS LIKELY EARTH DIRECTED FROM THE M1
EVENT. THE WIND SPACECRAFT RADIOMETER HAS ALSO DETECTED A FAST
INTERPLANETARY TYPE II BURST.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE FIELD IS FORECAST TO BE
QUIET UNTIL MIDDAY ON 23 MAY WHEN THE SHOCK FROM THE EARTH DIRECTED
CME IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE. ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD
OCCUR DURING THE LATTER HALF OF 23 MAY AND ON 24 MAY. QUIET TO
ACTIVE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON 25 MAY AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES THE
EARTH. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT SHOULD
DECAY WITHIN 24 HOURS.
III. Event Probabilities 23 MAY to 25 MAY
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 MAY 081 Predicted 23 MAY-25 MAY 081/081/080 90 Day Mean 22 MAY 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 MAY 006/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 MAY 003/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 MAY-25 MAY 015/025-025/025-010/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 MAY to 25 MAY
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 15% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 15% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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