Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Thursday, 22 May 1997

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 May 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 142 Issued at 2200Z on 22 MAY 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME VERY LOW. ONLY SMALL B-CLASS ENHANCEMENTS WERE OBSERVED AFTER THE M1 EVENT ON 21 MAY. REGION 8040 (N05W25) STABILIZED AND THE MAGNETIC DELTA THAT WAS FORMING YESTERDAY HAS FADED. OTHER REGIONS ON THE DISK ARE STABLE OR IN SLOW DECLINE. LARGE, CURRENTLY QUIESCENT, PROMINENCES WERE VISIBLE ON THE SOUTHEAST LIMB.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW TO LOW. OCCASIONAL C-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE FROM REGION 8040.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES. ENERGETIC ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT AGAIN REACHED HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD. CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS WERE OBSERVED FROM THE WEST LIMB AND ALSO AS A VERY WEAK HALO FOLLOWING THE M1 EVENT ON 21 MAY. THE WEST LIMB EVENT APPEARS TO BE RELATED FROM A SLOW EVENT IN REGION 8043 (N27W79) WHILE THE HALO CME IS LIKELY EARTH DIRECTED FROM THE M1 EVENT. THE WIND SPACECRAFT RADIOMETER HAS ALSO DETECTED A FAST INTERPLANETARY TYPE II BURST.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

THE FIELD IS FORECAST TO BE QUIET UNTIL MIDDAY ON 23 MAY WHEN THE SHOCK FROM THE EARTH DIRECTED CME IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE. ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE LATTER HALF OF 23 MAY AND ON 24 MAY. QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON 25 MAY AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES THE EARTH. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT SHOULD DECAY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

III. Event Probabilities 23 MAY to 25 MAY

Class M	15%	15%	15%
Class X	01%	01%	01%
Proton	01%	01%	01%
PCAF	GREEN

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       22 MAY 081
  Predicted   23 MAY-25 MAY  081/081/080
  90 Day Mean        22 MAY 074

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 MAY  006/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 MAY  003/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 MAY-25 MAY  015/025-025/025-010/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 MAY to 25 MAY

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	30%	35%	20%
Minor storm	20%	25%	05%
Major-severe storm	05%	15%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	30%	35%	20%
Minor storm	20%	25%	05%
Major-severe storm	05%	15%	01%

All times in UTC

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