Viewing archive of Saturday, 24 May 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 May 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 144 Issued at 2200Z on 24 MAY 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. ONLY MINOR B-CLASS ENHANCEMENTS WERE OBSERVED. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OCCURRED IN THE CURRENT DISK REGIONS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AT A VERY LOW LEVEL FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF A SMALL C-CLASS FLARE FROM DECAYING REGION 8040 (N06W53).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD REMAINED QUIET. THE DISTURBANCE RELATED TO THE CME OF 21 MAY FAILED TO MATERIALIZE AS EXPECTED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD RANGE FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS FOR 25 MAY. THAT IS THE FINAL DAY THE CME RELATED DISTURBANCE COULD IMPACT THE EARTH. QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR 26-27 MAY.
III. Event Probabilities 25 MAY to 27 MAY
Class M05%05%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 MAY 077
  Predicted   25 MAY-27 MAY  077/076/073
  90 Day Mean        24 MAY 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 MAY  004/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 MAY  007/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 MAY-27 MAY  015/020-005/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 MAY to 27 MAY
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%15%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%

All times in UTC

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