Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Saturday, 31 May 1997

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 May 31 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 151 Issued at 2200Z on 31 MAY 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. A SINGLE B1/SF WITH ACCOMPANYING 3 DEGREE DSF WAS OBSERVED FROM SPOTLESS REGION 8046 (S26W42) AT 31/1206Z. IN ADDITION, A LARGE 61 DEGREE FILAMENT BEGAN TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE AT APPROXIMATELY 31/1202Z, AND FINALLY DISAPPEARING AT APPROXIMATLEY 31/1349Z FROM THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT (N43, W36 TO W90). OF THE TWO ACTIVE REGIONS CURRENTLY ON THE VISIBLE DISK, REGION 8047 (N27E19), A 3 SPOT 'CRO' BETA GROUP, REMAINS STABLE, WHILE 8048 (S29E41), A SIX SPOT 'BXO' BETA, HAS DISPLAYED GROWTH AND INCREASED ADF AND AFS ACTIVITY SINCE FORMING YESTERDAY.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY LOW, WITH A COMBINED 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR A C-CLASS EVENT FROM REGIONS 8047 AND 8048.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS, WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS, WITH CONTINUED PERIODS OF ISOLATED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. ACTIVITY ON DAY THREE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO MOSTLY UNSETTLED WITH THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS AS AN INITIAL RESPONSE TO TODAY'S LARGE DSF EVENT. SUSTAINED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON DAY FOUR.

III. Event Probabilities 01 JUN to 03 JUN

Class M	05%	05%	05%
Class X	01%	01%	01%
Proton	01%	01%	01%
PCAF	GREEN

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       31 MAY   073
  Predicted   01 JUN-03 JUN  076/076/076
  90 Day Mean        31 MAY   074

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 MAY  007/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 31 MAY  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 JUN-03 JUN  005/005-005/005-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 JUN to 03 JUN

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	10%	10%	20%
Minor storm	05%	05%	10%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	05%

B. High Latitudes
Active	15%	15%	25%
Minor storm	10%	10%	10%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	05%

All times in UTC

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