Viewing archive of Friday, 25 July 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Jul 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 206 Issued at 2200Z on 25 JUL 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8065 (N18W56) HAS CONTINUED TO GROW AND SHOWS THE FORMATION OF SOME MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY, PARTICULARLY IN THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE GROUP WHERE A GAMMA (AND POTENTIALLY A DELTA) CONFIGURATION HAS FORMED. THE INVERSION LINE RUNS IN A MOSTLY EAST-WEST DIRECTION AND IS A GOOD CANDIDATE FOR DEVELOPING SHEAR. THE GROUP PRODUCED NUMEROUS LOW LEVEL C-FLARES TODAY. THE MOST NOTABLE OF THESE WAS A LONG DURATION C4/SN THAT BEGAN AT ABOUT 2015Z, ROSE SLOWLY TO MAXIMUM AT 2035Z, AND WAS DECAYING SLOWLY AT FORECAST ISSUE TIME. THIS EVENT WAS ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG RADIO BURSTS (1600 SFU AT 2695 MHZ), AND TYPE II/IV RADIO SWEEPS. THE TYPE II SHOCK SPEED WAS ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 900 KM/S. THERE ARE THREE OTHER SPOTTED REGIONS ON THE DISK INCLUDING NEW REGION 8066 (N22E73), BUT THESE REGIONS WERE RELATIVELY CALM COMPARED TO 8065.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSLY LOW. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE FROM REGION 8065 OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET. THERE WERE OCCASIONAL UNSETTLED PERIODS, PARTICULARLY AT THE HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR ENHANCED ACTIVITY BEGINNING LATE ON THE THIRD DAY IN RESPONSE TO A CORONAL HOLE THAT WILL BE ROTATING INTO A GEOEFFECTIVE POSITION AT THAT TIME.
III. Event Probabilities 26 JUL to 28 JUL
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 JUL 080
  Predicted   26 JUL-28 JUL  082/082/080
  90 Day Mean        25 JUL 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 JUL  015/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 JUL  005/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 JUL-28 JUL  005/008-005/008-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 JUL to 28 JUL
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%20%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%25%
Minor storm05%05%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%10%

All times in UTC

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