Viewing archive of Saturday, 26 July 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Jul 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 207 Issued at 2200Z on 26 JUL 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. ONLY A FEW B-CLASS EVENTS WERE OBSERVED DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8065 (N17W70) HAS BECOME STABLE IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE GROUP'S MAGNETIC STRUCTURE HAS SIMPLIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY AND IT NOW SHOWS A SIMPLE BETA CONFIGURATION.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED C-CLASS EVENT OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN INCREASE IS EXPECTED SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE TOMORROW AND EARLY ON DAY THREE DUE TO EFFECTS FROM A POSSIBLE TRANSIENT ASSOCIATED WITH YESTERDAY'S LONG DURATION X-RAY EVENT. IN ADDITION TO THIS, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR EFFECTS FROM A CORONAL HOLE BEGINNING ON THE THIRD DAY. MOSTLY UNSETTLED LEVELS (BUT WITH POSSIBILITY FOR ACTIVE PERIODS) ARE EXPECTED ON DAY 2 AND UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS ARE FORECAST FOR DAY THREE.
III. Event Probabilities 27 JUL to 29 JUL
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 JUL 077
  Predicted   27 JUL-29 JUL  075/075/072
  90 Day Mean        26 JUL 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 JUL  008/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 JUL  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 JUL-29 JUL  010/008-015/012-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 JUL to 29 JUL
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%25%20%
Minor storm10%20%10%
Major-severe storm05%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%30%30%
Minor storm10%25%25%
Major-severe storm05%15%15%

All times in UTC

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