Viewing archive of Friday, 12 September 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Sep 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

************************************ CORRECTED COPY ****************************************** SDF Number 255 Issued at 2200Z on 12 SEP 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8084 (N22W26), A 22-SPOT 'EAO' BETA-GAMMA GROUP FOR MOST OF THE REPORTING PERIOD, HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED AN EMERGING FLUX REGION OF REVERSED POLARITY IN THE FOLLOWING PART OF THE REGION, CREATING STEEP FIELD GRADIENTS. THE REGION NOW DISPLAYS A MODEST DELTA CONFIGURATION AND ELONGATED SPOTS IN THIS AREA, AND HAS GENERATED THREE C1 FLARES AND NUMEROUS SUBFLARES IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. REGION 8085 (S26E02), A 33-SPOT 'FKI' BETA GROUP, AND 8083 (S27W59), A 12-SPOT 'EKO' BETA GROUP, REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE AND QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. THE PROBABILITY FOR C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS REMAINS HIGH FOR REGIONS 8084 AND 8085, WITH THE RECENT ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH REGION 8084 ALSO PRESENTING A GOOD CHANCE FOR M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY UNSETTLED, WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS, FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX HAS BEEN PREDOMINATELY HIGH TO VERY HIGH, CROSSING OVER INTO THE VERY HIGH RANGE AT APPROXIMATELY 10/1700Z, AND CONTINUING AT THAT LEVEL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REPORTING PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED WITH THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED ON DAYS TWO AND THREE,
III. Event Probabilities 13 SEP to 15 SEP
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 SEP 109
  Predicted   13 SEP-15 SEP  108/107/105
  90 Day Mean        12 SEP 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 SEP  009/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 SEP  017/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 SEP-15 SEP  015/015-010/010-005/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 SEP to 15 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%15%10%
Minor storm15%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%15%10%
Minor storm15%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

All times in UTC

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