Viewing archive of Saturday, 13 September 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Sep 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 256 Issued at 2200Z on 13 SEP 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A SINGLE UNCORRELATED C2 X-RAY EVENT, MOST LIKLEY FROM REGION 8086 (N27E50), OCCURRED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS REGION, A 5-SPOT 'CSO' BETA GROUP, ALSO PRODUCED FOUR SUBFLARES DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8084 (N22W39) HAS LOST SOME OF IT'S SPOTS SINCE YESTERDAY, BUT REMAINS STABLE IN AREA AS A 16-SPOT 'EAO' BETA-GAMMA GROUP. THE ONLY ACTIVITY OF NOTE FROM REGION 8084 THIS PERIOD HAS BEEN A COUPLE OF SUBFLARES. REGION 8085 (S26W12) CONTINUES TO BE STABLE AND QUIET AS AN 18-SPOT 'FKI' BETA GROUP. REGION 8083 (S28W73) HAS DECAYED INTO A 7-SPOT 'DAO' BETA GROUP AS IT PREPARES TO ROTATE OFF THE WEST LIMB.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW, WITH ADDITIONAL C-CLASS EVENTS LIKLEY. IN ADDITION THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT FROM EITHER REGION 8084 OR 8085 STILL EXISTS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX HAS BEEN PREDOMINATELY HIGH TO VERY HIGH, CROSSING OVER INTO THE VERY HIGH RANGE AT APPROXIMATELY 13/1745Z, AND CONTINUING AT THAT LEVEL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REPORTING PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, MOSTLY UNSETTLED ON DAY TWO WITH THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS, AND BACK DOWN TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED ON DAY THREE.
III. Event Probabilities 14 SEP to 16 SEP
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 SEP 108
  Predicted   14 SEP-16 SEP  108/106/106
  90 Day Mean        13 SEP   078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 SEP  013/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 SEP  010/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 SEP-16 SEP  010/010-015/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 SEP to 16 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%15%
Minor storm05%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%15%
Minor storm05%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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