Viewing archive of Sunday, 14 September 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Sep 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 14 SEP 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8083 (S27W85) APPEARED TO BE DECAYING AS IT SLID TOWARD THE LIMB. THIS REGION PRODUCED A C2.8/SF FLARE AT 14/0255Z. TWO UNCORRELATED C1 X-RAY BURSTS COULD BE ATTRIBUTED TO THIS REGION. REGION 8084 (N22W53) PRODUCED A C1/SF FLARE AT 14/2016Z. THIS REGION HAS DECAYED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND IS NOW AN ESO GROUP OF 12 SPOTS IN A BETA-GAMMA CONFIGURATION. REGION 8085 (S26W25) PRODUCED A C2.7/1F FLARE AT 14/1115Z. THIS REGION ALSO HAS DECAYED SLIGHTLY BUT IS STILL AN FKI GROUP OF 16 SPOTS IN A BETA CONFIGUARATION. REGION 8086 (N28E38) PRODUCED A C1.5/SF FLARE AT 14/1702Z. THIS REGION IS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED AS A CSO GROUP OF 5 SPOTS IN A BETA CONFIGURATION. THE REMAINDER OF THE DISK AND LIMB IS RELATIVELY QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW. THE SPOTTED GROUPS REMAINING ON THE VISIBLE DISK HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF CONTINUED C-CLASS ACTIVITY AND A CHANCE OF ISOLATED M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH A SINGLE PERIOD OF ACTIVE LEVELS AT ABOUT 14/1000Z.. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ENERGETIC ELECTRONS REMAINED AT HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 15 SEP to 17 SEP
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 SEP 103
  Predicted   15 SEP-17 SEP  100/100/100
  90 Day Mean        14 SEP 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 SEP  009/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 SEP  012/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 SEP-17 SEP  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 SEP to 17 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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