Viewing archive of Thursday, 18 September 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Sep 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 261 Issued at 2200Z on 18 SEP 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEVERAL
C-CLASS FLARES HAVE BEEN PRODUCED WITH ONLY ONE OPTICALLY CORRELATED
WITH REGION 8084 WHICH HAS ROTATED AROUND THE WEST LIMB OF THE SUN.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A CHANCE FOR C-CLASS FLARING
EXISTS FROM REGIONS 8085 AND 8086.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS AT
ALL LATITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THE FIRST DAY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAILING THE LAST TWO DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 19 SEP to 21 SEP
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 SEP 088 Predicted 19 SEP-21 SEP 086/082/082 90 Day Mean 18 SEP 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 SEP 008/008 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 SEP 015/017 PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 SEP-21 SEP 005/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 SEP to 21 SEP
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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