Viewing archive of Wednesday, 15 October 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Oct 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 15 OCT 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. YESTERDAY'S NEWLY NUMBERED REGION 8096 (N14E51) PRODUCED A SUBFLARE AT 14/2115Z WITH SMALL B-CLASS X-RAY OUTPUT, BUT HAS BEEN QUIET SINCE. TODAY'S NEW REGION, 8097 (N17E80) PRODUCED A BRIGHT SURGE AT 15/1508Z COINCIDING WITH A B5.9 X-RAY OUTPUT. ALL OTHER REGIONS REMAINED QUIET. X-RAY IMAGERY INDICATES A NEW REGION ROTATING THE EAST LIMB AT N15.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS WITH BOTH NEW REGIONS HAVING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRODUCING C-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 16 OCT to 18 OCT
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 OCT 087
  Predicted   16 OCT-18 OCT  087/088/088
  90 Day Mean        15 OCT 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 OCT  005/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 OCT  003/004
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 OCT-18 OCT  005/008-005/010-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 OCT to 18 OCT
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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