Viewing archive of Monday, 24 November 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Nov 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 328 Issued at 2200Z on 24 NOV 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED M1 FLARE OCCURRED AT 24/1950Z. SOON ANALYSTS WERE OBSERVING THE SUN DURING THE EVENT AND THEY DID NOT OBSERVE ANY ENHANCEMENT IN CURRENT DISK REGIONS. OLD REGION 8103 IS DUE TO RETURN AT THE NORTHEAST LIMB IN ABOUT A DAY AND A HALF AND THIS COULD BE THE SOURCE OF THE M1. REGION 8103 WAS GROWING AT WEST LIMB TRANSIT AND RECENT SPACE-BASED IMAGES SHOW ENHANCED EMISSION OVER THE NORTHEAST LIMB. REGION 8108 (N20W65) PRODUCED A C3/1F AT 24/0400Z. THIS REGION DISPLAYED DECAY AND CONTINUED REDUCTION OF MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. OTHER DISK REGIONS SHOWED LITTLE EVOLUTION.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGION 8108 SHOULD PRODUCE OCCASIONAL C-CLASS EVENTS BUT AT A DECREASING FREQUENCY. IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASSESS THE FLARE POTENCY OF A REGION BEHIND THE LIMB. A PERSISTENCE FORECAST ARGUES FOR OCCASIONAL M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. NEAR 24/1200Z, SOLAR WIND VELOCITY DROPPED TO NEAR 450 KM/S. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BECAME HIGH DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS FORECAST TO BE PREDOMINANTLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 25 NOV to 27 NOV
Class M30%30%30%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 NOV 103
  Predicted   25 NOV-27 NOV  103/107/105
  90 Day Mean        24 NOV 092
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 NOV  052/060
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 NOV  007/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 NOV-27 NOV  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 NOV to 27 NOV
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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