Viewing archive of Saturday, 29 November 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Nov 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 333 Issued at 2200Z on 29 NOV 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8113 PRODUCED THREE
MINOR C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE LARGEST A
C5/SF AT 29/0929Z. THIS REGION HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY STABLE IN
SIZE SINCE YESTERDAY, WHILE INCREASING IT'S SPOT COUNT FROM 19 TO
27. THE REGION'S LEADER SPOT HAS INCREASED IN SIZE TODAY, AND
SEVERAL OF THE INTERMEDIATE SPOTS NOW HAVE PENUMBRA. REGION 8113 IS
CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS AN 'EHO' BETA-GAMMA GROUP, ALTHOUGH THE MOUNT
WILSON OBSERVATORY CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BETA-GAMMA-DELTA MAGNETIC
CONFIGURATION.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. REGION 8113 RETAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT M-CLASS
X-RAY ACTIVITY, AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED X-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX REMAINED HIGH.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH ACTIVITY
INCREASING TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED ON DAYS TWO AND THREE. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT THE SHOCK ASSOCIATED WITH THE X2/2B FLARE ON 27 NOV.
COULD IMPACT EARTH EITHER LATE ON DAY TWO OR EARLY ON DAY THREE. IF
THIS OCCURS, ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO INCREASE BRIEFLY TO ACTIVE, WITH
THE OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED PERIOD OF MINOR STORMING.
III. Event Probabilities 30 NOV to 02 DEC
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 NOV 112 Predicted 30 NOV-02 DEC 125/125/120 90 Day Mean 29 NOV 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 NOV 002/002 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 NOV 002/002 PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 NOV-02 DEC 005/007-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 NOV to 02 DEC
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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