Viewing archive of Friday, 26 December 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Dec 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 360 Issued at 2200Z on 26 DEC 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8124 (S22E01) PRODUCED A
SINGLE C2/SF FLARE AT 26/0557Z. SPACE-BASED SENSORS OBSERVED A
THREE-QUARTER HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION COINCIDENT WITH THE FLARE.
FURTHER DATA IS STILL SKETCHY, BUT NO RADIO EMMISSION WAS DETECTED
WITH THE EVENT. REGION 8124 CONTINUES TO DECAY SLOWLY. REGION 8126
(N20E41) HAS GROWN SLIGHTLY BUT HAS REMAINED QUIET AND STABLE. NEW
REGION 8127 (S17W54), A SMALL AXX SPOT GROUP, WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 8124 STILL HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF PRODUCING
C-CLASS ACTIVITY AND A SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARING.
REGION 8126 HAS A CHANCE OF ISOLATED C-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
POSSIBILITY OF INCREASED ACTIVITY BY DAY FOUR, RESULTING FROM
TODAY'S CME, IS STILL BEING EVALUATED.
III. Event Probabilities 27 DEC to 29 DEC
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 DEC 105 Predicted 27 DEC-29 DEC 104/104/102 90 Day Mean 26 DEC 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 DEC 002/002 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 DEC 002/002 PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 DEC-29 DEC 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 DEC to 29 DEC
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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