Viewing archive of Saturday, 27 December 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Dec 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 361 Issued at 2200Z on 27 DEC 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED AT A LOW LEVEL. REGION 8124
(S21W11) PRODUCED A C3/1F AT 27/1638Z. THIS REGION WAS PREDOMINANTLY
STABLE DURING THE PERIOD. SOME MIXED POLARITIES REMAINED AND A WEAK
DELTA CONFIGURATION MAY EXIST IN THE CENTER OF THE REGION. AN
ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE WAS OBSERVED BETWEEN 26/2352Z-27/0116Z FROM
N35W90. THE MATERIAL REACHED 0.19 RADIUS ABOVE THE LIMB BEFORE
FADING. A SMALL REGION EMERGED NEAR N28W53 AND WAS NUMBERED AS NEW
REGION 8128.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE AT A
GENERALLY LOW LEVEL FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGION 8124 SHOULD
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL C-CLASS EVENTS. AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE IS
POSSIBLE FROM THIS REGION.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
REMAIN QUIET FOR 28-29 DEC. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON 20
DEC IN RESPONSE TO A PARTIAL HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION OBSERVED ON
26 DEC.
III. Event Probabilities 28 DEC to 30 DEC
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 DEC 096 Predicted 28 DEC-30 DEC 097/098/098 90 Day Mean 27 DEC 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 DEC 002/001 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 DEC 001/002 PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 DEC-30 DEC 005/004-005/005-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 DEC to 30 DEC
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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