Viewing archive of Friday, 23 January 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jan 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 023 Issued at 2200Z on 23 JAN 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. REGION 8143 (S35E60)
PRODUCED SEVERAL SMALL B-CLASS SUBFLARES. THIS REGION GREW AT A SLOW
PACE. A SMALL REGION ROTATED AROUND THE EAST LIMB NEAR N12E65 AND
WAS NUMBERED AS NEW REGION 8144.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY
VERY LOW. REGION 8143 IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED SMALL C-CLASS
FLARES.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
A SMALL GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE
IS EXPECTED ON 24-25 JAN. GENERALLY, UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST. ISOLATED MINOR STORM PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT
INTERVAL. QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR ON 26 JAN.
III. Event Probabilities 24 JAN to 26 JAN
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 JAN 097 Predicted 24 JAN-26 JAN 100/102/103 90 Day Mean 23 JAN 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 JAN 003/004 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 JAN 005/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 JAN-26 JAN 012/010-012/012-008/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 JAN to 26 JAN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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