Viewing archive of Thursday, 25 December 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Dec 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 359 Issued at 2200Z on 25 DEC 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW DESPITE THE EXISTENCE
OF REGION 8124 (S22E14). THIS REGION HAS PRODUCED ONLY TWO MINOR
B-CLASS SUBFLARES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. 8124 IS SLOWLY DECAYING,
BUT OBSERVATORIES REPORT A TIGHTENING AND TWISTING MAGNETIC GRADIENT
AND MODERATE SPOT GROUP ROTATION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. REGION 8126
(N21E54) WAS STABLE AND QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. REGION 8124 STILL HAS A
GOOD CHANCE OF C-CLASS ACTIVITY AND A SMALLER CHANCE OF ISOLATED
M-CLASS ACTIVITY. REGION 8126 HAS A CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL C-CLASS
ACTIVITY.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 26 DEC to 28 DEC
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 10% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 DEC 105 Predicted 26 DEC-28 DEC 102/102/100 90 Day Mean 25 DEC 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 DEC 004/003 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 DEC 003/004 PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 DEC-28 DEC 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 DEC to 28 DEC
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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