Viewing archive of Thursday, 25 December 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Dec 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 359 Issued at 2200Z on 25 DEC 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW DESPITE THE EXISTENCE OF REGION 8124 (S22E14). THIS REGION HAS PRODUCED ONLY TWO MINOR B-CLASS SUBFLARES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. 8124 IS SLOWLY DECAYING, BUT OBSERVATORIES REPORT A TIGHTENING AND TWISTING MAGNETIC GRADIENT AND MODERATE SPOT GROUP ROTATION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. REGION 8126 (N21E54) WAS STABLE AND QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. REGION 8124 STILL HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF C-CLASS ACTIVITY AND A SMALLER CHANCE OF ISOLATED M-CLASS ACTIVITY. REGION 8126 HAS A CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL C-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 26 DEC to 28 DEC
Class M25%25%10%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 DEC 105
  Predicted   26 DEC-28 DEC  102/102/100
  90 Day Mean        25 DEC 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 DEC  004/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 DEC  003/004
PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 DEC-28 DEC  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 DEC to 28 DEC
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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